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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd